Every week, the NFL reminds us why betting lines exist — to humble even the most confident of us. But I like where I’m sitting heading into Week 11. After crunching injuries, vibes, and some truly bizarre trends, I’ve got five plays I feel great about — plus Damonza’s teaser (which, spoiler, earns him a report card he won’t frame).

Miami (-2.5) vs. Washington — from Madrid

I initially liked Miami minus two and a half thinking the game was in Washington. When I found out it’s on a neutral field in Madrid, I loved it even more.

Washington is simply too banged up — their quarterback is out, half a dozen defensive starters are missing, and they look like one of the softest spots in football right now. Meanwhile, Miami suddenly has sneaky good vibes again.

Yes, Tua’s struggled overseas, but one of those games was against the Chiefs — I’m throwing that one out. If you’re giving me Miami under a field goal against a depleted Commanders team, I’m all in.

• The pick: Miami -2.5 (Madrid)

Chicago (+3) at Minnesota

I thought Minnesota had chances against the Ravens but didn’t capitalize. Chicago, on the other hand, looks like it can score on anyone. I like this Bears offense in a dome and think they can win outright on the moneyline.

• The pick: Chicago +3 at Minnesota

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Buffalo

I’m sorry, but Buffalo shouldn’t be laying more than a field goal against any team that has its act together — and Tampa does.

This might be the first week all season Tampa’s actually healthier than its opponent. They could get Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back, while Buffalo’s injury list reads like a CVS receipt.

I don’t need the Bucs to win outright — though they could — just to hang around and cover the spread. They’re the healthier team, and Buffalo still looks like it’s doing some soul-searching.

• The pick: Tampa Bay +5.5 at Buffalo

San Francisco (-2.5) at Arizona

This one makes me a little nervous, because Kyle Shanahan has historically struggled covering against Arizona. But this is about timing.

Arizona is a mess — fresh off getting demolished — and San Francisco knows these are the games you can’t let slip if you’re chasing a playoff spot. They should have Brock Purdy back, and while I don’t think the gap between Purdy and Mac Jones is massive, it’s enough to steady things.

I love that I’m not laying the hook at three. Give me the Niners to control this one and win by a field goal.

• The pick: San Francisco -2.5 at Arizona

Kansas City (-3.5) at Denver

If you got this line when it opened at -3, congratulations — but even at -3.5, I’ll take the Chiefs.

I just don’t think Bo Nix can get this Denver offense past 17 points. The only question: can Kansas City score 21? Against this Broncos defense, yes — they can.

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and Denver still isn’t.

• The pick: Kansas City -3.5 at Denver

Nick’s Week 11 Card

• Miami -2.5 (vs. Washington, in Madrid)
• Chicago +3 (at Minnesota)
• Tampa Bay +5.5 (at Buffalo)
• San Francisco -2.5 (at Arizona)
• Kansas City -3.5 (at Denver)

Damonza’s Week 11 Teaser: The Fatherhood Fumble

Damonza’s first teaser as a new dad comes with all the love in the world… and an F grade from me.

He’s teasing through zero, ignoring key numbers — classic “baby brain” mistakes. Here’s what he’s rolling with:

• Texans +1.5
• Dolphins +5.5
• Buccaneers +13.5

I’m rooting for you, my friend, but as a betting analyst — fair’s fair. That’s an F. We’ll call it fatherhood rust.

Touchdown Genie Parlay

Last week, I told you Kyle Monangai would score. He did. We’re still undefeated lifetime on Touchdown Genie picks.

This week, I’m going big with a Touchdown Genie Parlay — Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey both to score, -122. Simple, powerful, cash it in.

Bonus Pick: Quarterback Chaos

The “group” offered me one more: Trevor Lawrence and Jameis Winston both to throw a pick, around +140. Two former No. 1 overall picks, two interceptions. Sadly, I’ll take it.

I almost made the same mistake twice. I was this close to putting Detroit back on the card – and then I remembered what happened last week. That defense. That miserable, lifeless performance that made me swear off the Lions for at least seven days.

So, no Detroit this time. Lesson learned.

Let’s talk about the games that actually matter. Five plays for NFL Week 10 – and yes, I feel every bit as confident as I did last week when we went 3-2. This week feels different though. Feels like a 5-0 week.

 

Atlanta (+6.5) vs. Indianapolis (Berlin Game)

We start in Berlin, where Atlanta’s getting a little too much disrespect. The line moved from +5.5 to +6.5 after the Colts traded for Sauce Gardner – a move that somehow bumped the spread a full point. Come on. A cornerback doesn’t move a line like that.

So I’ll take the extra value. Atlanta’s defense can keep this close, and Bijan Robinson and Drake London have both started to find a rhythm again. Yes, it’s a Europe game, but this feels like a one-possession finish either way.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs. New England

This one’s simple. You’re giving me the better team, at home, off a bye – and I only need to lay less than a field goal?

Tampa checks every box. Baker Mayfield is 4-0 straight up as a favorite and 6-4 ATS with extended rest. Meanwhile, Drake Maye is getting absolutely crushed behind that Patriots line and is due for regression. Tampa wins this one comfortably.

Jacksonville (-1) at Houston

This is a “fade Davis Mills” game.

The Texans offense looked hopeless last week with Mills under center, and now that C.J. Stroud’s ruled out again, I don’t see how Houston keeps up. The Jags defense has been stingy, the offensive line is solid, and Trevor Lawrence has enough weapons to handle business.

Chicago (-3.5) vs. NY Giants

I’ll say it again: the Giants’ season ended the night they blew that game to Denver. Everything since then has been proof. They’re broken, banged up, and Brian Daboll looks more exasperated every week.

The Bears, on the other hand, have an offense that can explode at any time. They’re favored by 3.5 at Hard Rock Bet – that’s a point cheaper than anywhere else. Maybe that’s the New York money talking, but I’ll happily take advantage.

Pittsburgh (+3) at LA Chargers

This one’s becoming a weekly theme: Never doubt Mike Tomlin as an underdog.

The Steelers are heading west, sure, but they’re getting points – and against a Chargers team missing star tackle Joe Alt. That Pittsburgh defense is rejuvenated, and if there’s one coach who covers in spots like this, it’s Tomlin.

Oh, and SoFi will sound like Acrisure Stadium West. This isn’t even a true road game.

Nick Wright’s Week 10 Card

• Atlanta +6.5
• Tampa Bay -2.5
• Jacksonville -1
• Chicago -3.5
• Pittsburgh +3

Three favorites, two dogs. Confidence meter: maxed out.

Damonza’s Teaser: “We’re Due”

After a rough week (Detroit, I’m looking at you), Damonza’s back with a new 8-point teaser:

• Buffalo down to a pick’em
• Cleveland up to +6
• Philly up to +10

He’s calling it the “Get Right Teaser.” I’m less bullish on the Cleveland leg, but Buffalo and Philly both feel safe.

Player Prop of the Week: Kyle Monangai Anytime TD (-125)

We’re staying undefeated on touchdown props. This week we ride with Kyle Monangai in that Bears-Giants matchup. Yes, the odds aren’t sexy, but he’s coming off the game of a lifetime and has all the momentum – bad weather in Chicago should set up a few goal line attempts.

Monangai Anytime TD. Lock it in.

Good luck this weekend, everyone. Download the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app, and we’ll see you back here when we’re 5-0.

Let’s start with some honesty: I was this close to keeping Dallas on the card this week — and then I remembered that defense. A defense so bad it made Bo Nix look like prime Peyton. I yanked them at the last minute, and thank God for that.

So, forget the Cowboys. Let’s talk about the games that actually matter. I’ve got five plays for NFL Week 9, and yes, I feel as confident about these as I’ve felt about anything all season.

Detroit (-8.5) vs. Minnesota

Let’s begin in the Motor City, where the Lions are rolling and Jared Goff is quietly destroying the Vikings every time he sees them.
He’s 8-0 against the spread versus Minnesota in a Lions uniform. Detroit’s on extended rest, and the Vikings — well, let’s just say “total mess” might be kind.

We don’t know how healthy J.J. McCarthy really is, or if he’s the next guy to find out that Detroit’s defense eats bad quarterbacks for breakfast. And when the Lions win, they don’t just win — they pour it on.

I love the Lions here. It’s my favorite play of the week. Detroit -8.5. Lock it in.

Pittsburgh (+3) vs. Indianapolis

This one’s simple: Never doubt Mike Tomlin at home getting points. You can throw numbers at me all day, but they all tell the same story — this guy covers.

Do I feel amazing about the Steelers’ defense right now? No. Does that matter? Also no. Because history says when you’re giving Tomlin three at home, you bet Tomlin. I like Pittsburgh +3.

San Francisco (-2.5) at NY Giants

The Giants’ season effectively ended when they blew that game to Denver. Since then? Beaten up, banged up, and called out. When Carl Banks is questioning Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux’s name is floating in trade rumors, you know the vibes are off.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is a machine. Doesn’t matter who’s under center — they travel, they dominate. I’ll gladly lay 2.5. The Giants are floundering, the Niners are focused. Easy choice.

Kansas City (-1.5) at Buffalo

Here’s where I break from the “sharp” side. The sharps love getting points at home with Buffalo. Me? I’m not overthinking it. The Chiefs are the best team in football.

Most of Mahomes’ mediocre ATS numbers come from being huge favorites. This isn’t that. This is essentially a pick’em. The Chiefs win by at least a field goal. I’ll take Kansas City -1.5.

Seattle (-3) at Washington

I know — West Coast team heading East. Normally that’s a red flag. But Seattle? They actually thrive in this spot: 17-8-2 ATS in East Coast games over the past half-decade.

Washington’s defense is broken and its roster is bruised. Seattle’s one of the most underrated teams in football, and I’ll ride them here. Seattle -3.

The Week 9 Card

So there it is:

• Detroit -8.5
• San Francisco -2.5
• Kansas City -1.5
• Seattle -3
• Pittsburgh +3

Four favorites and one dog. I feel great about it.

Damonza’s Teaser: “By Any Means Necessary”

Damonza has cooked up an eight-point teaser — Lions, Chargers, basically moneyline plays with the extra points, and the Chiefs. It’s gutsy, but I like it. Detroit and L.A. should be in the bag, and if the Chiefs can keep it within a touchdown (or win outright), that ticket cashes.

Player Prop of the Week: Josh Allen Anytime TD

We’ve been hot on these touchdown props. Let’s keep it rolling.

This week, give me Josh Allen anytime touchdown in the Chiefs-Bills game. Even money. Buffalo’s going to need him to put the cape on, and when they get down near the goal line, Allen loves the tush-push. Simple, smart, profitable.

This week’s NFL slate is tricky, but that’s never stopped us before. All lines come courtesy of Hard Rock Bet, and while some of these go against my usual rules, we’re rolling with them anyway. Five games, five picks — and a few big opinions along the way.

Atlanta (-7.5) vs. Miami

Let’s start with the mess in Miami. The Dolphins are unraveling — they’ve gone from scrappy competitors to a team that looks completely lost. Mike McDaniel’s frustration is showing, Tua Tagovailoa looks shaken, and their defense is giving up chunk plays like it’s part of the game plan.

Atlanta might not be perfect, but this is about timing. Bijan Robinson should run wild against a Dolphins defense that’s given up over a thousand yards on the ground, and the Falcons can exploit Miami’s secondary all day. A seven and a half point spread feels heavy for Atlanta, but the Dolphins look cooked. We’re laying it.

Chicago (+6.5) at Baltimore

The Ravens haven’t earned the right to be touchdown favorites over anyone — and that includes Chicago. Lamar Jackson’s health has been a question, but even if he plays, the Bears match up better than most expect. Chicago has the better defense, the stronger running game, and, believe it or not, the coaching edge right now.

The ping-pong table is gone in Baltimore, but that won’t fix their problems. Six and a half points is too much — the Bears can absolutely win this outright.

Tampa Bay (-3.5) at New Orleans

This one breaks one of my personal betting commandments: don’t lay more than a field goal in a divisional matchup. Still, I’m doing it. Why? Because Baker Mayfield hates the Saints — truly. He thinks they play dirty, and he’s not hiding it.

Coming off a tough loss, I think Baker pours it on. The Bucs’ offense couldn’t get rolling last week, but this is a get-right game for them. It might sound like bad analysis, but I trust Baker’s chip on his shoulder here. Tampa by more than a field goal.

Dallas (+3.5) at Denver

The Broncos are 2–8 straight up in their last ten games when giving up at least 20 points. And with how Dallas has been moving the ball, they’ll easily hit that mark. Denver can’t win this in a shootout, and that’s exactly what they’ll face against one of the league’s most explosive offenses.

And while we’re talking about Denver, keep an eye on Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey — at altitude, he could legitimately challenge the record for the longest field goal in NFL history. Dallas plus the points is the play.

Green Bay (-3) at Pittsburgh

This is a big spot for the Packers, and it’s time for them to show something. They haven’t looked sharp since Week 1, but this is a statement opportunity against a gritty Pittsburgh team. The Packers’ defense can disrupt the Steelers’ timing and force mistakes, and I expect Jordan Love to finally settle in.

Laying points in Pittsburgh isn’t easy, but Green Bay is due for a convincing win. Packers by a field goal feels right.

Nick’s Picks Week 8 Recap

• Atlanta -7.5 vs. Miami
• Chicago +6.5 at Baltimore
• Tampa Bay -3.5 at New Orleans
• Dallas +3.5 at Denver
• Green Bay -3 at Pittsburgh

Two underdogs, three favorites — four road teams. A gutsy card, but one we feel good about.

Damonza’s Teaser of the Week

After last week’s bad beat (thanks, Tennessee), we’re back with an 8-point, three-team teaser at +100:

• Chicago +14.5
• Indianapolis -6
• Dallas +11.5

We like it — solid value across the board, and Indy always handles business against the bottom-feeders. Chicago might ruin it if Baltimore wakes up, but that’s a loss we’d live with.

Touchdown Genie Pick: Travis Kelce (+120 Anytime TD)

Monday Night Football spotlight. Big stage. Travis Kelce is scoring this week. After a quieter game, expect the Chiefs to feed him in the red zone. Simple as that.

Bonus Prop: Bijan Robinson Total Yards Over 125.5 (-115)

We’re doubling down on Bijan. Last week’s total yards bet missed, but we’re going right back to it — because Miami’s defense is tailor-made for him to dominate. Expect a monster game.

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.

Last week was about trusting great quarterbacks. This week, I’m doing the opposite: leaning into grimy value with some of the NFL’s worst quarterback situations.

1) Titans +7 at Patriots

I swore I wouldn’t bet Tennessee again as long as Brian Callahan was the head coach. He’s out. Seven is too many. New England’s riding a couple of strong wins and feeling itself at the top of the division; that’s exactly when a young, unproven team can slip. It’s also the Pats’ third straight road game, which matters against the number.

Narrative note: with the Titans having fired him, Mike Vrabel (now on the other sideline) isn’t hunting a statement blowout—he’s coaching to win. I like the backdoor and outright upset potential here. I’d love +7.5; I’ll take +7.

2) Jets +1.5 vs. Panthers

This is a number play. The game opened Jets -1.5 and flipped through zero to Jets +1.5. My decades of betting experience say that kind of late chase often dies by a single point. I can’t explain it—call it a market tell—but I expect a one-point game where folks who laid Carolina -1.5 (instead of grabbing +1.5 earlier) get clipped.

Also: if you’re a Jets fan, when are you winning if not here? I’ll take the +1.5 and live with the noise.

3) Giants +7 at Broncos

This is extra rest vs. travel. The Giants played Thursday at home; Denver played Sunday in London and looked rough on offense. New York’s feeling okay about itself, and this is a spot where they can win outright.

Truth serum: Brian Daboll might trust his quarterback more than Sean Payton trusts his. The Giants’ kid won’t be scared of the defense—maybe mistakes, maybe big plays—but seven is too many. Give me Big Blue +7.

4) Falcons +2 at 49ers (SNF)

The Niners haven’t really lived without both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner; that’s a fundamental identity shift, and I don’t think the market has fully priced what Bijan Robinson can do with Warner out. I don’t care if Brock Purdy is back—Atlanta can win this outright. I expect Drake London to pop, Bijan to pile up yards, and that Falcons secondary to challenge a quarterback in his first game back after time off.

The wrong team favored. Falcons +2.

5) Seahawks -3 vs. Texans

My one favorite. Seattle’s underrated at 4-2: a toss-up with the Niners in Week 1 and a track-meet loss to Baker, 38–35. The D-line has been good and Sam Darnold has been excellent. Houston’s off a bye, sure—but I don’t trust that offense yet. I’d prefer -2.5, but I’ll lay the 3.

The Week 7 picks

• Titans +7
• Jets +1.5
• Giants +7
• Falcons +2
• Seahawks -3

Yes, I’m “betting on bad quarterbacks.” If it were as simple as “always play the elite QB,” everyone would be rich. We stabilized with that approach last week; this is the buy-low, hold-your-nose slate.

Damonza’s 3-Team, 8-Point Teaser (+100) — My Grade: A

Here’s Damonza’s 3-team teaser for week 7:

• Titans up to +15
• Colts up to +10
• Giants up to +15

This isn’t just about “key numbers,” though you do run through them—it’s that I already like Tennessee and the Giants at +7, and I think Indy is live to win outright.

TD Genie? Sitting It Out

I’m passing on a touchdown prop this week. I flirted with Rashee Rice, but the value/price didn’t sing. Sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Thanks to our partners and to you for riding along. We’ll tally it up next week—hopefully after a weekend where the ugly dogs bark.

I want to circle back to the Chiefs for one reason: the league MVP race is quietly becoming a two-man conversation—Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes—and Hard Rock Bet just built a market that reflects it perfectly.

Hard Rock is offering “Mayfield or Mahomes to win MVP” at -150 versus the field at +105 (odds subject to change, available in Florida). That matters because it’s a true two-way market. I hate one-way “yes only” props; you can’t triangulate a fair price without a corresponding “no.” Here, you can see the book’s full view—there’s some juice, sure, but you’re actually getting a head-to-head price on the race as it stands.

And I’ve got to tell you: getting both Baker and Patrick at only -150 feels like a strong wager.

Full disclosure: I’m already covered

I’m not personally firing on this because I already have the exposure:

I grabbed Baker at 35–1 in the preseason on Hard Rock Bet.

And like an annuity, I bet Mahomes for NFL MVP every year—about once every three years it pays.

Back in our preseason gambling show, I said I thought Tampa could be the NFC’s No. 1 seed. If that happens, Baker is very live. Even I didn’t expect this hot of a start, but the path was there.

Why the MVP race narrowed so fast

A bunch of preseason darlings have either fallen off or been taken out of the conversation entirely:

AFC MVP candidates

• Joe Burrow: out—literally.
• Lamar Jackson: I think he’s out, too. Missing a couple games doesn’t kill you, but starting in a deep hole does; to stay viable he’d need something like a 10–1 run from here.
• Daniel Jones: playing well, but he’s not winning MVP—especially when many would argue Jonathan Taylor has been that team’s best player.
• Aaron Rodgers: team has only one loss, but he doesn’t have the numbers.
• Justin Herbert: trendy pick that cooled off.
• Josh Allen: still viable, but he’s had hiccups lately.

MVP candidates from the NFC

• Jalen Hurts: Uphill battle, team record isn’t there
• Dak Prescott: No chance. He won’t have a better year than Joe Burrow last year, who didn’t have a real shot, and they won’t have enough wins.
• Jared Goff: I just don’t see it.
• Jordan Love: Hasn’t had a “wow” season.
• Matthew Stafford: Viable, but injuries around him (Puka’s status matters) complicate the case.

That leaves the real threats to the Baker/Patrick ticket as Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford.

Why Mahomes has “narrative momentum”

Yes, the Chiefs have taken their lumps, but Patrick always lives near the top of this market. Getting Rashee back helps both the on-field product and gives the narrative arc voters something to latch onto. If Kansas City strings together wins—as they so often do down the stretch—Mahomes will be right there again.

How I’d play it (and how you could fade it)

• If you think Baker sustains and the Chiefs finish strong, Baker or Mahomes as a -150 favorite makes sense.
• If you believe Baker cools and KC’s record isn’t special, you can bet the field as a +105 underdog. That’s the beauty of a two-way.

Either way, credit to Hard Rock Bet for posting an either/or that actually lets bettors price the race in real time. It’s available now for Florida bettors under the ‘NFL Specials’ tab.

This week, I’m doing something I’ve never done before. It’s time to shake the snow globe and get the mojo back. I’m breaking all my usual gambling rules and going all-in on a new philosophy — only bet on quarterbacks I trust.

I’m taking five picks this week, but the theme is simple: trust. Trust in experience, in leadership, and in guys who have shown they can deliver when it matters. Let’s get into NFL Week 6.

1. Rams (-7.5) at Ravens

I was this close to taking Pittsburgh -5.5 against Cleveland. But then I looked at that Cleveland defensive line, and I couldn’t do it. I don’t want to lay more than a field goal with Aaron Rodgers in that spot.

So I pivoted — executive decision. Give me Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Yes, they’re traveling west to east, and yes, that’s usually a red flag. But the Rams are coming off extra rest, they need this win, and the Ravens are a mess without Lamar.

Stafford’s battle-tested, and the Rams are desperate. I trust him to handle business. Rams -7.5 is the play.

2. Cowboys (-3) at Panthers

Another road favorite, another break from my usual rules. But this is a slump-buster game, and I’m betting on Dak Prescott to get it done.

Dak has been awesome lately. The Panthers, on the other hand, are completely inept for entire quarters — sometimes entire halves. Bryce Young might be on his last start before the team makes a change.

The stat that seals it: Dak is 33-18-2 against the spread versus teams under .500 in his career. Bad teams don’t sneak up on him. Dallas rolls. Cowboys -3.

3. Buccaneers (-3) vs. 49ers

This one’s for the Bake Show. I don’t think Mac Jones is going to replicate last week’s performance, and I don’t think San Francisco’s secondary can handle Tampa’s receivers.

Sure, the Bucs have offensive line injuries — but I don’t think the Niners’ defensive personnel can really exploit it. Ideally, I’d love this line at 2.5, but even at 3, I’ll lay the points.

Baker Mayfield loves the big moments, loves the game-winning field goal scenario. I’m trusting him here. Buccaneers -3.

4. Chiefs (-2) vs. Lions

Now we’re getting to the one that raised eyebrows — even Dan Le Batard’s.

When I told him I thought Kansas City would beat Detroit, he was shocked. Next thing I knew, we had a $5,000 straight-up bet on it. That’s how confident I am.

Here’s the thing: Detroit’s top two corners are out, and while everyone’s piling on the Lions hype train, Kansas City is the more desperate team after that ugly loss to Jacksonville.

Everyone’s going to be chasing losses Sunday night by betting Detroit. Not me. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs -2.

5. Bears (+4) at Commanders

This is it for Caleb Williams — the most important game of his career so far. Chicago’s coming off a bye, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has had two full weeks to prepare.

Do I think they win outright? Possibly. But at the very least, I think the underdog keeps it close. I’m taking Bears +4, trusting Caleb to rise to the moment.

The Philosophy: Stop Overthinking

This week, I’m betting on quarterbacks I believe in — Stafford, Dak, Baker, Mahomes, and Caleb.

Sure, I’m probably on the square side of some of these plays — Rams, Cowboys, maybe even Tampa — but I don’t care. Sometimes you have to stop overthinking and trust the guys who can actually make plays.

This is how we go 5-0.