It’s time for the Hard Rock Bet Play of the Day, and we’re heading back to one of my favorite angles — a familiar coach, a motivated team, and a first-half total that feels just a little too light.

I’m 3-1 so far with the Hard Rock Bet plays, and I’m returning to the spot where it all began: the Creighton Bluejays’ first-half team total.

A Familiar Face on the Opposite Sideline

Creighton faces North Dakota, a college basketball matchup with a little built-in history. Head coach Greg McDermott started his career coaching at North Dakota (then the Fighting Sioux, now the Fighting Hawks), so there’s some natural familiarity and pride involved here.

McDermott’s teams have always been built to shoot, and that’s what makes this game intriguing. Through the early part of the season, the Jays have struggled to find rhythm from beyond the arc, and they’ve heard about it — loudly. Heading into a neutral-site run against Baylor and Iowa State in Las Vegas, this feels like the night to get right.

• The Bet: Creighton Bluejays 1H Team Total Over 45.5 (-104)

Creighton’s full-game team total sits around 91.5 points, but that’s too high in what should become a one-sided game. Instead, the value sits in the first-half number: 45.5 points.

Yes, the Jays are averaging just 41 first-half points so far, and the raw numbers don’t necessarily scream “over.” But the context matters. Against a North Dakota defense they should completely outclass, I’m expecting Creighton to come out focused and shooting confidently.

They’ve been frustrated by poor three-point shooting early in the year, but this offense is designed to live behind the arc — and open looks should be plentiful tonight.

KenPom projects roughly 90 points overall for Creighton, and if they’re going to clear that, the surge likely starts early. I’m betting they find their groove quickly.

The Rest of Today’s Card

• CMU vs. KSU Over 49 (1.1 units) – Expecting both teams to move the ball effectively and find scoring consistency.
• Bruins vs. Ducks 1st Period Over 1.5 (-135) – Fast pace early and plenty of offensive talent on both sides.
• UConn 1H -3.5 vs. Arizona – I like first half the spread here. A heavyweight non-conference battle; the Huskies’ efficiency gives them an edge before halftime.

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After a few swings and misses lately, it’s time to settle in and tighten things up. No wild parlays, no chasing long shots – just clear reads and disciplined plays.

Tonight, we’ve got four spots where the numbers feel a touch too high – one hockey 1st Period total, two NBA prop bets and one sleepy college football matchup that might struggle to reach the mid-40s. Let’s dig in.

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Devils vs. Blackhawks 1st Period Under 1.5 Goals (+100)

We open the card with a trip to the ice, where both Chicago and New Jersey have quietly been first-period under machines. Neither team has shown much offensive rhythm out of the gate, and both goaltenders – whether it’s the starters or the backups – have been steady enough to keep things calm early.

Nationally televised games can sometimes bring early nerves and tight play, and that works perfectly for this angle. As long as we avoid a pair of fluky redirects or power-play goals, this one has all the makings of a 1-0 or 0-0 first intermission.

Grayson Allen Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)

It’s easy to get swept up in recency bias. Allen just dropped the game of his life – a barrage of threes, a career-high scoring night, and the kind of stat line that grabs everyone’s attention. But that’s precisely when the fade becomes most valuable.

Before that eruption, his totals for points and boards had been living in the high teens, rarely touching 21. His efficiency spike came on unsustainable shooting splits, and now he draws a defense far more capable of running him off the arc.

The projection models have this number shaded high by a few points, and when a player comes off a career night, the books almost always dare you to bet against the regression. I’ll take that dare.

Duncan Robinson Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)

Robinson’s resurgence as a confident shooter has been fun to watch, but this line is inflated beyond what his role typically provides. He’s hit this mark just once in his last five outings, and that came against a soft perimeter defense that let him walk into clean looks.

Tonight’s opponent brings far more length and switch-ability – not ideal for a player so dependent on rhythm and screens. Detroit’s rotation has also condensed with a few guys returning, and Robinson’s minutes could dip slightly if the game stays competitive.

This is a high-efficiency scorer who doesn’t get to the line or crash the glass. That combination makes unders like this worth revisiting any time he’s priced near 18 combined.

Northern Illinois vs UMass Under 43.5 Total Points (-110)

If you’re into offensive fireworks, this one isn’t for you. These two offenses have spent the season in neutral – sputtering drives, long third downs, and plenty of punts. UMass barely cracks double digits per game, and Northern Illinois isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard either.

The weather’s turning colder in Amherst, the stands will be half-empty, and both teams seem content to run clock instead of tempo. Unless we get a handful of short fields from turnovers, it’s hard to see either side pushing this total north of 40.

Expect a grind, a lot of field position battles, and maybe a touchdown or two that feels like pulling teeth.

Final Thoughts

When the betting board feels unpredictable, unders can be a safe harbor. Shots cool off, games slow down, and the scoreboard doesn’t always live up to expectations.

Four unders. Four opportunities to win by letting the clock work in our favor.

Let’s cash a quiet night.

We’re early in the college basketball season, and if we’re being honest, we’re flying blind right now. These first few games are always tough — rosters are full of new recruits and transfers, and last year’s stats don’t tell the whole story anymore. So yeah, opening up slow doesn’t exactly feel great, but I’m not losing sleep over it. This time of year is about recalibrating, reading the early returns, and looking for value in the chaos.

Tonight, I think I’ve found a good spot to do just that — and it comes in Omaha, with the Creighton Bluejays.

Betting the Jays: First-Half Over vs. South Dakota

Creighton opens their home slate in front of what’s sure to be a sellout crowd, and they’ve cracked the Top 25 for a reason. South Dakota’s coming to town, and I expect them to run. They’re not the kind of team that slows it down or turns the ball over much — they want to push pace and score in bunches.

On the flip side, the Jays are built for tempo. They’ve got a massive size and athleticism advantage inside, and when the threes are falling, they can put up points in a hurry. I don’t want to mess with a point spread, laying 16 in the first half or 28.5 for the game — that’s too much variance this early in the season. Instead, I’m keeping it simple with a first half over/under:

• Creighton and South Dakota, First Half Over 79.5 (-120) for 1.2 units.

Let’s get a 50–30 type first half, and I think Creighton’s more than capable of doing their part if they’re shooting well. That’s the Hard Rock Bet of the Day.

Wednesday’s Card: One Future and Three Plays

It’s been a rough week, but I’m looking to turn it around with three plays tonight and a future on the board:

1. Seahawks to win the Super Bowl at +1400 (1 unit)
2. Lauri Markkanen (Jazz) under 27.5 points + assists (-110)
3. Ball State -1.5 vs. Kent State (1.1 units)

• Play of the Day: Creighton/South Dakota First Half Over 79.5 (-120, 1.2 units)

Let’s see if we can break the cold streak and roll into Thursday Night Football with a little momentum — Raiders and Broncos on deck.

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