NFL Week 11 had everything: coaching blunders, redemption arcs, playoff clarity, and a few quarterbacks who melted like snowmen under pressure. Let’s break it all down.

Lions at Eagles

Dan Campbell finally crossed the line from fearless to reckless. Fourth downs piled up like parking tickets, and each one cost Detroit more momentum. Jared Goff, bundled in two gloves and bad decisions, looked frozen in every sense. Philly’s offense was an eyesore, but Vic Fangio’s defense? Terrifying. Jaelan Phillips and the rest of that front seven are monsters – the Eagles have quietly flipped identities from juggernaut offense to sledgehammer defense. And if that unit keeps playing like this, they can win ugly all the way into January.

Seahawks at Rams

Sam Darnold’s “I’m back” campaign hit the wall – hard. Four picks, each uglier than the last, erased a brilliant defensive effort from Mike Macdonald’s group. You could feel the tension: big stage, division on the line, and Darnold blinked. Sean McVay and the Rams smelled blood, attacked his tendencies, and made him see ghosts again. Seattle’s roster is loaded, their scheme sound, but this was a gut-check loss that screamed: they’ll only go as far as their quarterback can take them.

Broncos at Chiefs

Statement win. That’s what this was for Sean Payton and Bo Nix. The young QB looked poised, calm, and unbothered by it all – a far cry from the jittery version we saw two weeks ago. Denver’s defense? Ruthless. They’re on pace to break sack records and break opponents’ will. Kansas City fought hard, but you could feel the tide turn: the Broncos are the best team in football right now. From 1-2 to 9-2 heading into the bye, they’ve gone from punchline to powerhouse. This team looks like it’s hunting the AFC’s top seed.

Bears at Vikings

Ben Johnson is cooking, and Chicago’s finally got juice again. Caleb Williams is chaotic – misses wide-open reads, then spins out of a sack and fires a 40-yard missile that only he sees. The Bears are wild, undisciplined, and alive. Meanwhile, Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings keep trying to force-feed a pass-happy plan to a quarterback who can’t swim in deep water yet. JJ McCarthy’s raw, nervous, and clearly miscast in this system. Chicago’s staff is maximizing its kid. Minnesota’s is exposing theirs.

Cowboys at Raiders: MNF Prediction

Vegas on a Monday night always feels like a trap, and this one reeks of it. Dallas has the better roster, the better quarterback, and the hotter offense, but the Raiders are due for one of those “how did they win that?” primetime games. The Cowboys’ defense has leaked oil for weeks, and Ashton Jeanty could be the one to rip them open. Still, expect fireworks: Dak and CeeDee Lamb will get theirs, but so will Vegas’ ground game.

The Pick: Raiders +3
Parlay: Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD, CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD, Raiders +3. +600.

This one smells like a 27-26 nail-biter under the Vegas lights.

We were finally able to pick a winner on a Monday night with Eagles over Packers last week. This time around? Not so easy. Dallas heads into Vegas laying three points against the Raiders, and we’re split. One of us is leaning into the star on the helmet, the other’s hunting for an upset on prime time.

Cowherd: Dallas is Built for This Spot

When I watch the Cowboys, I see structure. I see a team that’s gotten past its early-season wobble and settled into what they are – fast, organized, physical, and decisive. Dak Prescott has quietly strung together one of the cleanest stretches of football in the league, and the offensive line is finally healthy enough to let him breathe.

It’s not always flashy, but Dallas has become the rare team that wins the way veteran teams do: controlling tempo, dominating field position, and forcing turnovers instead of praying for them.

And let’s be honest: the Raiders don’t have an identity right now. The Pete Carroll experiment – and yes, it’s still weird to say “Pete Carroll, Raiders coach” – feels like it’s missing a gear. They’ve got young talent, sure, but it’s all over the map. Jeanty’s shown flashes, Geno’s been up and down, and the defense looks like it’s still stuck in preseason mode.

This is one of those classic spots where good coaching, a top-five quarterback, and a pass rush that gets home make all the difference. Dallas doesn’t need style points here. They just need to be themselves – efficient, aggressive, and mistake-free.

Give me the Cowboys to win and cover. Vegas can hang for a half, but over four quarters, the better roster pulls away.

Middlekauff: The Case for the Raiders – Barely

I get why Colin likes Dallas. Everyone does. Which is exactly why I don’t.

We’ve seen this movie before: a primetime Cowboys game, big buildup, everyone leans in on the favorite, and then suddenly it’s the middle of the third quarter and the underdog is hanging around. I’m not saying the Raiders are better – they’re not – but these Monday night games have a funny way of turning messy.

Maybe it’s the short week for Dallas, maybe it’s the travel, maybe it’s just the league’s parody finally catching up – but I’ll take the points and hope Pete Carroll’s got one trick left. This feels like a “backs-against-the-wall” week for him. They’ve been embarrassed twice in a row, the home crowd will be loud, and if Jeanty can get going, they can make this ugly.

And if there’s one thing Dallas doesn’t love, it’s ugly. They want rhythm. They want structure. Break that up, and suddenly Dak starts forcing throws, Schotty gets conservative, and the Cowboys start settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.

So yeah. I’ll take the Raiders. Not because I love them, but because Monday nights can be wild, and wild is usually good for the dog.

Cowboys at Raiders MNF Picks

Cowherd: Cowboys -3
Middlekauff: Raiders +3

Whichever way you lean, buckle up for this one.

The NFL season’s slogging through the dog days, but if you dig deep enough, there’s still money to be made. Good matchups are rare, quarterbacks are mediocre, and offenses are broken – but that’s when sharp bettors thrive.

Here’s how I see this weekend shaking out: my three best bets brought to you by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

49ers (-3) at Cardinals

Brock Purdy’s back, and that alone should give the Niners a spark. The defense is held together by duct tape, but the Cardinals are an even bigger disaster. They’re missing corners, linemen, and their defensive front can’t stop anyone.

Arizona’s offense? One read and panic. McBride might get 12 targets because there’s no one else left standing. The Niners’ offense has been rolling behind their backup, and plugging Purdy back in should keep it humming – rust or not.

San Francisco’s too talented, Arizona’s too banged up. Don’t overthink it – back the road favorite.

Seahawks (+3) at Rams

This one’s about secondaries. The Rams can’t cover anybody; the Seahawks can. That’s the whole handicap. Seattle’s corners are healthy again, they can rush with four, and that should let them hang tight against Stafford and Puka.

McVay’s offense is creative, but that Rams defense is living off reputation. The Seahawks have been better on the road than at home under Mike Macdonald, and they travel well.

This might look like a toss-up, but Seattle’s the sharper side. I like the road underdog to keep rolling.

Lions (+2.5) at Eagles

The Eagles might be winning, but they look lost doing it. Their offense is lifeless, the line’s banged up, and they lead the league in three-and-outs. Dan Campbell, on the other hand, just took over play-calling and gave his guys a jolt.

Detroit started throwing early, got creative, and the vibe flipped instantly. Sure, that came against the Washington tire fire, but momentum’s momentum. Campbell’s players clearly respond to him, and that matters.

Philly’s due for a clunker, and if Goff can stay upright outdoors, the Lions can absolutely steal this one.

We’ll be honest — Monday Night Football has been my (Colin’s) weak spot this year. The Blazin’ Five? Fantastic season. But Mondays? Brutal. I keep taking favorites, and they keep burning me.

This week, we get Green Bay at Lambeau, laying 1.5 points on the spread against Philadelphia, and for once, I’m not touching the home favorite. I like the Eagles, and I like them to win outright.

Colin: Philly’s Found Their Identity

When I watch Philadelphia, I see a team that knows exactly who they are. Coming off the bye, they’re rested, organized, and physical. The last time we saw them, they’d finally found their rhythm — that offensive balance, the defensive swagger, the identity that makes them dangerous in November and December.

Green Bay? I’m not sure what they are right now. They’ve got injuries all over — Tucker Kraft is gone for the year (and I think he’s a Pro Bowl-level tight end). Jayden Reed’s been banged up. And Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur still haven’t figured out a real offensive personality.

Philly’s got answers. Green Bay’s still asking questions. That’s a bad mix when the weather gets cold and the pressure’s on. Give me the Eagles and the points — actually, forget the points. Give me Philly moneyline.

John: The Pressure’s All on Green Bay

I’ve been fading you on a lot of these Monday night games, Colin — but not this one. I’m with you.

If the Eagles come out and jump up early, 14–3 or 14–7, that crowd at Lambeau? They’re going to get restless. You could hear some boos. There’s real pressure building on LaFleur. They keep losing games they’re supposed to win, and when that happens in Green Bay, people notice.

Meanwhile, Philly’s quietly reloaded. They’ve added Jaelan Phillips, brought in a couple corners, tightened up the secondary. They’re not sneaking up on anybody, but this feels like one of those weeks where the focus is sharper than the market thinks.

I like the Eagles, too. This game’s all about who’s confident — and right now, that’s not the Packers.

It’s a Statement Spot

This is one of those “identity” games. One team knows what it is. The other’s trying to figure it out. Philly’s more physical, deeper, and they’ve got the better quarterback and coaching staff right now.

We both like the Eagles to win outright — and if that happens, the conversation in Green Bay next week isn’t going to be about the playoff picture. It’s going to be about pressure. On LaFleur. On Jordan Love.

That’s what Monday night does — it exposes you.

Our Monday Night Pick

It’s nearly a pick’em, and we’re taking the Eagles.

• Eagles +1.5

We’ve hit the dog days of the NFL calendar—the point where injuries, coaching tightness, and playoff math start to warp lines and public perception. It’s where you separate the contenders from the content. Here’s how I’m playing it.

Monday Night: Eagles at Packers (-2)

• Pick: Packers (under a field goal)

Green Bay’s the more well-rounded team right now. At Lambeau, point spread under three, I like the Packers’ explosiveness when they play up in class—and the Eagles’ offense still hasn’t proved it’s “fixed” against a real defense. Big game for LaFleur; I think he answers.

Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins

• Pick: Bills -9.5

If Buffalo’s a legit AFC threat, this is a step-on-the-throat spot. That defensive front looked like a Super Bowl unit against KC; if they bring 80% of that, Miami’s in trouble. Narrative says “flat spot” after the Chiefs—my gut says statement win.

Steelers (+3) at Chargers

• Pick: Steelers +3

LA’s OL is gutted. When Pittsburgh’s front hunts, games flip fast—silent count in their own building, turnover or two, and suddenly it’s a Steelers script. I’ll take the points.

Ravens at Vikings (First Half)

• Pick: Ravens 1H -2.5

This is a system play I love: Lamar as a first-half favorite has been money. Extra rest, offense and defense healthy, Flores’ blitzes versus the league’s best QB against pressure. Ravens tend to jump teams early—ride the 1H.

Browns at Jets (+2)

• Pick: Jets as a home dog

Ugly? Yes. Also value. Nasty weather, plodding game, and Cleveland’s defense routinely travels worse than it plays on the Lake. Home dog + low total profile.

Jaguars at Texans (+1)

• Pick: Texans as a dog (and teaser leg over 7)

Houston’s defense can win this outright, and Jacksonville’s pass-catchers are banged up. If you’re a teaser person, this is a classic push through 3 and 7 spot.

Seahawks at Cardinals (+6.5)

• Pick: Cardinals +6.5 (wait for +7 if it pops)

Arizona’s defense is legit and structurally equipped to dampen Seattle’s play-action explosives. Brissett keeps them on schedule and out of disasters. They’ve been live every week—one-score game again.

Rams at 49ers (+4.5)

• Lean: Over; 49ers underdog angle

This series has been dog-driven for years. SF’s defense is thin up front; Rams’ offense plays fast and throws. Niners can still scheme explosives—especially with George Kittle healthy—so I lean to points and the ‘dog if you demanded a side.

Lions at Commanders (+8)

• Pick: Commanders +8

Mariota is in, but is Jayden Daniels really worth five or six points? This seems too high.

You couldn’t have asked for a better Sunday slate. After a few sluggish weeks of NFL football, Week 9 delivered – big quarterback performances, some ugly coaching decisions, and a whole lot of clarity in the NFC playoff picture. Let’s run through it game by game.

Lions at Vikings

Brian Flores drew up a masterpiece. His defense came out hunting, and rookie QB J.J. McCarthy made just enough plays to steal one on the road. Detroit looked flat – no edge, no urgency – and Minnesota punched them right in the mouth. This was a “line-in-the-sand” game for the Vikings, and they responded like a team with pride. Don’t count them out in the NFC Wild Card chase.

Colts at Steelers

Sometimes football’s simple: your $100 million guy just has to make a play. That’s what T.J. Watt did. With Indy threatening to go up 10-0, Watt blew around the edge, stripped the quarterback, and flipped the entire game. Pittsburgh’s defense looked like Pittsburgh’s defense again: five sacks, six turnovers. Mike Tomlin’s teams never die easy, and this was a vintage Steelers win.

Bears at Bengals

Caleb Williams looked like a roller coaster – you scream, you cheer, you almost puke. But he made explosive plays, and that’s what matters. The Bears somehow won one of the wildest finishes of the year – that’s a locker-room win for a young quarterback still figuring it out. For Cincinnati, it’s another gut punch for a defense that can’t stop anyone.

Panthers at Packers

You can’t lose that game. You just can’t. The Panthers are scrappy, but if you’re Matt LaFleur and the Packers, that’s a nightmare loss at home. Jordan Love and company moved the ball easily but went 0-for-4 in the red zone. That’s play-calling and execution. Losing tight end Tucker Kraft to what looks like an ACL tear only adds to the misery. Green Bay should’ve been leading the NFC North after Detroit’s loss; instead, they blew a golden chance.

Broncos at Texans

Bo Nix is the ultimate box of chocolates – you never know what you’re getting. Half the game he looks like a rookie in over his head, then he rips a 40-yard dime that makes you think he’s the future. The Broncos’ defense is legit, but they can’t keep winning if Nix keeps missing layups. Still, Sean Payton’s group is 8-2 if they take care of the Raiders Thursday night, and nobody saw that coming. Ugly or not, they win football games.

Bills at Chiefs

Everyone calls this a rivalry. It’s not – at least not until Buffalo wins a playoff game. They got another one in the regular season, but that doesn’t move the needle much. Josh Allen was sharp, the defense played physical, and they pushed Kansas City around for four quarters. Still, until the Bills beat Mahomes when it matters – in January – this will always feel like Jordan vs. Ewing. Buffalo needed this statement win badly. The Chiefs? They’ll shrug it off. Andy Reid will hit the bye week, fix the offense, and probably host the AFC title game anyway.

Seahawks at Commanders

This one turned from a football game into a blowout fast. Jayden Daniels’ elbow bent the wrong way late in this one, and that’s all you need to know about Washington’s season: it’s over. After a magical NFC title run, they’re cooked. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks rolled, and Seattle suddenly looks like a legitimate NFC contender.

Darnold’s revival is one of the great stories of the season. The guy’s been written off twice, and now he’s on arguably the best contract in football. Credit John Schneider – trading for Leonard Williams, nailing the JSN pick, hiring Mike Macdonald. That’s elite GM work. Seattle’s balanced, violent on defense, and looks like a team that could win 11 or 12 games.

Cardinals at Cowboys: MNF Prediction

Monday Night Football – we’ll dive into it after the game, but here’s what we know: Kyler Murray appears to be benched, and it’s Jacoby Brissett time. When Brissett’s started, Arizona’s actually been pretty good. They easily could’ve beaten the Colts a couple weeks ago, and they probably should’ve beaten the Packers. He’s played well. And here’s the thing – the Cowboys’ defense isn’t good. So, if you’re giving me a field goal with Brissett and the Cardinals, I’ll take it. Dak and the Dallas offense are solid, but this feels like it could end up being a one-point game.

When it comes to Monday Night Football, everyone’s got an opinion — and so do we. This week’s matchup between the Cowboys and Cardinals isn’t just another primetime game; it’s a test of identity, confidence, and consistency.

Colin Cowherd: The Cowboys Are Built to Dominate at Home

I’ve always believed there’s something to be said about the teams that carry a real identity — a sense of who they are. Dallas is one of those teams. You can knock the Cowboys all you want for being flashy or overly hyped, but at home, Dak Prescott becomes a different quarterback. The numbers don’t lie — his splits are dramatic. He’s calm, confident, and efficient when the lights are on at AT&T Stadium.

And this year, credit where it’s due — Brian Schottenheimer’s play-calling has been sharp. The Cowboys have done an excellent job balancing their offensive weapons. George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb stretch the field, forcing safeties to stay honest. That opens up running lanes, and when Dallas has balance, they’re dangerous. Arizona, on the other hand, feels like a franchise still in search of its reflection in the mirror. They’re in a rebuild, trying to rediscover who they are.

That’s why I’m taking the Cowboys to win — and to cover the spread. I see them controlling the tempo, forcing Arizona into catch-up mode. Dallas by a touchdown feels about right.

John Middlekauff: Don’t Sleep on the Cardinals’ Grit

I get where Colin’s coming from — Dallas at home is a safe play. But there’s something about this Arizona team that makes me pause before handing the game to the Cowboys so easily. Look, Jacoby Brissett isn’t a star, but he’s steady. The guy almost took down the Colts not long ago, and when he’s in rhythm, the offense moves.

There’s also the Kyler Murray factor — he’s been benched, and you don’t do that unless you’re trying to reset the culture. Sometimes, that shake-up brings out a tougher edge in the locker room. Arizona might not win, but covering that spread? That’s a bet I’ll take.

Dallas can win this game, sure. But underdogs — they play these primetime games with something to prove. I think the Cardinals hang around.

The Takeaway

Monday Night in the NFL often comes down to confidence versus hunger. Dallas knows who it is — at least at home — while Arizona is still figuring it out. But that journey, that fight for identity, can make a team dangerous.

One thing’s certain: between Prescott’s comfort under the bright lights and Brissett’s chip-on-the-shoulder resilience, this matchup has edge.

Every week, I pick three NFL games that I love the most — my “3 for the Money.” This week, it’s a mix of teams I trust, teams I’m buying low on, and one legendary coach I refuse to fade at home.

1. Lions -8.5 vs. Vikings: The McCarthy Meltdown Spot

This is your classic “everyone’s out on Minnesota” week — and for good reason. They’re beat up, and we’re supposed to believe J.J. McCarthy can walk into Detroit and hang with Dan Campbell’s crew? Come on.

I actually like McCarthy — he’s from Michigan, which makes this game personal for fans in the Michigan area. But this situation feels bad. It reminds me of when San Francisco tried to juggle their quarterback room pre–Brock Purdy. Sometimes you just screw up the QB situation and the whole thing unravels.

The Lions are monsters at home. Jared Goff indoors, off rest, with a coaching staff that’s dialed in — that’s as safe a bet as you’ll find in the NFL. Detroit’s defense, even with secondary injuries, has been outstanding at limiting bad quarterbacks, and McCarthy hasn’t shown us anything outside of one decent quarter.

Dan Campbell is a cash cow — his Lions have covered the spread 65% of the time under his tenure. Kelvin Sheppard’s defense is flying around, and Aidan Hutchinson looks unblockable again. I don’t see Minnesota hanging.

• The Pick: Detroit -8.5. This could get ugly early.

2. Steelers +3 vs. Colts: One More Tomlin Spot

I said it earlier this week — I’m done pretending Mike Tomlin is on the hot seat. The Steelers don’t fire coaches, and Tomlin doesn’t quit. But man, this feels like a fork in the road game for Pittsburgh.

They’re back-to-back home underdogs, they just got embarrassed, and history says this is when Tomlin shines. When he’s getting three or more points as an underdog, he’s 40-21-3 against the spread. At home, it’s even better — he covers by nearly a touchdown per game.

Here’s why I like the Steelers:

• The Colts have been inflated by a soft schedule.
• Their secondary is slow and hurt.
• They can’t cover tight ends — and Pittsburgh runs two-TE sets more than half the time.
• This is one of those “voodoo” games at Acrisure — ugly, physical, turnover-filled — exactly the kind of game Pittsburgh tends to win.

T.J. Watt needs to finally take over, and if he does, they can pull this off outright.

• The Pick: Pittsburgh +3. History, trends, and desperation all line up.

3. Falcons +5.5 at Patriots: The Buy-Low, Sell-High Special

I’ve faded New England the last few weeks and gotten burned. I’m not doing it again blindly — but this feels like the perfect spot to buy low on Atlanta.

The Falcons were favored by a touchdown last week, got absolutely smoked, and now everyone’s bailing. That’s exactly when I get in. In the last 20 years, teams that lose by 20+ as big favorites cover 67% of the time the next week. It’s the NFL’s ultimate overreaction pattern.

I like this spot for Atlanta because:

• They should get Drake London back — and that changes everything.
• Their defense is getting healthier and ranks 2nd in the NFL in preventing explosive passes, which is a big deal against Drake Maye.
• The Patriots’ linebackers can’t cover running backs or tight ends — so this could be a big Bijan and Kyle Pitts game.

Look, the Patriots are good — Vrabel’s turned them around fast — but this line’s too inflated. The market’s gone too far.

• The Pick: Falcons +5.5. Buy low, sell high, simple as that.

Wrapping Up

So there you go — my “3 for the Money” this week:

1. Lions -8.5 vs. Vikings
2. Steelers +3 vs. Colts
3. Falcons +5.5 at Patriots

Detroit’s dominance, Tomlin’s pride, and a bounce-back spot for Atlanta — that’s how you make money in November.

We’ll see how it shakes out, but remember: the NFL is all about timing and value. And this week, I think we’re on the right side of both.

If you’ve followed the NFL long enough, you know that by late October, the league starts to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Sunday’s slate reminded us of a simple truth: the bad teams now know they’re bad. There’s no more illusion, no more false hope — just the grim reality of rosters that can’t protect quarterbacks or keep up with the elite.

And sitting comfortably atop that elite tier is, once again, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City’s Edge Over the Field

When you line up the Chiefs against the rest of the NFL, it’s hard not to see a full touchdown’s worth of separation between them and whoever’s next. Maybe Philadelphia’s roster keeps things competitive — they’re deep, physical, and well-coached — but Kansas City’s combination of Mahomes, Reid, and a disciplined, opportunistic defense continues to be the difference-maker.

This week, the Chiefs enter Monday Night Football as an 11.5-point favorite over Washington, and for good reason. Normally, we shy away from big spreads. The NFL has a way of humbling even the best teams when you get north of a touchdown. But the more you watch this Chiefs group, the more it feels like they’ve rediscovered that second gear — the one that turns comfortable wins into blowouts.

Washington’s Regression to the Mean

Let’s be honest: Washington’s 2024 season was a pleasant surprise. They contended in the NFC East and were one win from the Super Bowl. They played above their weight class, squeezed everything out of that defense, and showed flashes of growth. But 2025 looks like a different story.

And now, they draw Kansas City — a team that doesn’t forgive mistakes. With Marcus Mariota running the show in place of Jayden Daniels, you can practically pencil in a couple of turnovers. That’s not a knock on Mariota; it’s just reality. Against this defense, one misread or a split-second hesitation turns into six points the other way.

No Reason to Overthink It

As much as we’d like to debate, sometimes the pick is obvious. The Chiefs are rolling, Washington’s fading, and the gap between the two might be wider than the line suggests.

So while we’ve both taken our share of favorites this season, this one feels different. It’s not about betting the number — it’s about recognizing greatness when it’s right in front of you.

• Prediction: Kansas City wins comfortably. The machine keeps humming, and the rest of the league keeps chasing.

We’re officially into that weird stretch of the season when the injuries pile up, contenders start separating, and half the league’s fanbases are already firing up mock drafts. This is the time of year when you’ve got to find value in the wreckage – spots where perception has swung too far and the public’s lost its mind.

Stuckey and I went deep on the pod this week, and after sifting through the tape, the injuries, and a few too many ugly offensive lines, three games jumped off the board. Let’s get into my HAMMERS for NFL Week 8.

1. Browns (+7) at Patriots

I can already hear it: “Why would anyone take Cleveland on the road?” Simply put: because seven points in this spot is too many. Drake Maye has been fun, no doubt. But he hasn’t seen a defense like this yet. The Browns’ defensive line can wreck games, and they’ve been nails at home; if they can carry even half of that juice into Foxborough, this thing stays close.

The question is whether Dillon Gabriel can hit a few chunk throws against a vulnerable Patriots secondary. Stuckey pointed out that New England is prone to giving up explosive passes and can be had over the top if you protect the pass. Cleveland’s offensive line isn’t perfect, but they can scheme it up.

Bottom line: it’s an ugly game, but ugly covers pay the same. When everyone’s jumping back on the New England bandwagon, that’s when you fade it.

2. Steelers (+3.5) vs Packers

If you’ve bet the NFL long enough, you know the Mike Tomlin spot when you see it. Underdog, at home, coming off a loss, national audience doubting them. It’s practically muscle memory for Pittsburgh to rise in these games.

Green Bay’s offense still hasn’t found its rhythm – too many moving parts, too many wideouts in and out of the lineup, and a line that’s never quite healthy. They’ll eventually figure it out, but not this week, not against T.J. Watt and a rested defense.

Add in Tomlin’s voodoo – blocked punts, tipped picks, whatever magic he conjures at home – and it’s a recipe for another ugly grinder that somehow ends 20-17 Steelers.

The numbers don’t lie: Tomlin is the most profitable coach in NFL history as a home underdog of three points or more.

3. Commanders (+12.5) vs Chiefs

Yeah, I know – it’s terrifying to step in front of Patrick Mahomes when he looks like he’s back in MVP form. But 12.5 points? That’s too rich. The Commanders aren’t a great football team, but they’re not the Raiders either.

Kansas City’s offensive line is limping – potentially down three starters, including Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor. When that happens, you can’t just assume Mahomes will cover double digits against a competent front. Washington can run the ball, chew the clock, and keep the Chiefs off the field. Marcus Mariota isn’t a star, but he’s a serviceable backup who’s run this system before.

Stuckey and I both see this as a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.

The Hammers for NFL Week 8:

• Browns +7
• Steelers +3.5
• Commanders +12.5

All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet and subject to change.